Monday, 12 November 2012

THE DUMBEST IDEA IN THE WORLD?

So, QBE has experienced another profit shortfall on the back of Sandy et. al: $1B vs $1.75 forecast/earnings guidance. (Funnily enough, insurers have to insure things)... Yes, there was a change of leadership at the top, and no, QBE did not adequately provision for unexpected losses. But a 12% drop in intra-day trading?... Unsurprisingly, Neal was impelled to engage in a $500M Capital Raising to staunch the loss to QBE's NA business. The Big Cheese issued a mea culpa... As Buffet repeatedly advises Berkshire holders, however, cost-to-float and one-time, unprovisioned, or even recurrent unforecast losses are synonymous with disaster claims and reinsurance operations... At the same time, QBE remains a stalwart brand with what appeared, in the past, to be very strong management. They invest significantly in training as well as organic growth etc... Can we really allow, in this 21st Century, half-baked investors who can't see past their own (very short) noses to determine the plight of capitalism?... How do we insure AGAINST THAT??? (Cf. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/business/economy/on-wall-st-a-keynesian-beauty-contest.html?_r=0)

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